AHL (American Hockey League) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Hershey Bears — Rochester Americans
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Hershey Bears 49%, Rochester Americans 51% including overtime.
5.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.8.
Facts
- League table: Hershey Bears — No. 12, 12 pts; Rochester Americans — No. 15, 11 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: Hershey Bears 4 wins, Rochester Americans 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hershey Bears — Rochester Americans | 2.8–2.8 | |
| Hershey Bears to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Rochester Americans to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 54% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 46% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Hershey Bears
- Hershey Bears goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 02.11Wilkes-Barre/Scranton0:5
- 31.10away · Toronto Marlies3:5
- 29.10away · Rochester Americans3:2
- 25.10Belleville Senators5:2
- 18.10Providence Bruins1:6
- 31.10Lehigh Valley Phantoms6:3
- 29.10Hershey Bears2:3
- 24.10away · Syracuse Crunch3:2 OT
- 22.10Utica Comets3:5
- 18.10away · Syracuse Crunch2:4
Head to head
- 29.10.2026Rochester Americans — Hershey Bears2:3
- 19.04.2026Hershey Bears — Rochester Americans5:4 OT
- 31.01.2026Rochester Americans — Hershey Bears3:1
- 29.01.2026Rochester Americans — Hershey Bears1:3
- 10.11.2025Hershey Bears — Rochester Americans2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cleveland Monsters | 10 | 6 | -1 | 12 | .600 |
| 12 | Hershey Bears | 10 | 6 | -2 | 12 | .600 |
| 13 | Toronto Marlies | 11 | 6 | +1 | 13 | .591 |
| 14 | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | 10 | 5 | +10 | 11 | .550 |
| 15 | Rochester Americans | 10 | 5 | +8 | 11 | .550 |
| 16 | Syracuse Crunch | 10 | 5 | 0 | 11 | .550 |
AHL on the same day
- Hamilton HammersBelleville Senatorspreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.4
- Lehigh Valley PhantomsWilkes-Barre/Scrantonpreliminary34662The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 2:45.8
- Springfield ThunderbirdsCharlotte Checkerspreliminary38622The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.3
- Manitoba MooseRockford IceHogspreliminary59411The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.6
- Texas StarsSan Jose Barracudapreliminary42582The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 2:46.3
- Colorado EaglesGrand Rapids Griffinspreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.3
- Abbotsford CanucksTucson Roadrunnerspreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
- San Diego GullsIowa Wildpreliminary58421The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →