Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 11 November, 19:30 (UTC+3)

IFK Helsinki — Jokerit

Model prediction for 11 November

IFK Helsinki46%

Draw in regulation22%

Jokerit32%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

IFK Helsinki are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.

Why

IFK Helsinki are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

League table: IFK Helsinki — No. 11, 27 pts; Jokerit — No. 16, 15 pts. A gap of 12 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: IFK Helsinki — Jokerit		2.6–2.2
IFK Helsinki to win (incl. OT and shootout)		58%
Jokerit to win (incl. OT and shootout)		42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		40%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap IFK Helsinki
IFK Helsinki goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

IFK Helsinki

31.10away · KooKoo3:1
30.10away · Assat2:3
28.10Ilves2:1
24.10away · Hameenlinna6:3
23.10away · Kiekko-Espoo3:0

Jokerit

31.10away · JYP4:5 OT
30.10away · KalPa1:4
24.10away · KooKoo6:3
17.10away · Ilves3:4 SO
16.10Assat2:4

Head to head

08.10.2026Jokerit — IFK Helsinki3:2 OT

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Tappara	19	7	2	3	7	51–46	+5	28
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	IFK Helsinki	19	7	1	4	7	53–56	-3	27
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	KalPa	18	8	0	1	9	46–41	+5	25
15, Relegation play-off	Vaasan Sport	18	5	1	2	10	33–53	-20	19
16, Relegation play-off	Jokerit	18	3	1	4	10	41–62	-21	15
17, Relegation	KooKoo	20	2	1	2	15	46–81	-35	10

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

19:30
IlvesPelicanspreliminary
6040
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.2
19:30
JukuritAssatpreliminary
5149
1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.2
19:30
JYPKarpatpreliminary
6040
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.3
19:30
Kiekko-EspooVaasan Sportpreliminary
7426
1The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:15.2
19:30
LukkoKalPapreliminary
6238
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →