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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 11 November, (UTC+3)

JYP — Karpat

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Model prediction for 11 November

JYP48%
Draw in regulation21%
Karpat30%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

JYP are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 49%.

Why

  • JYP are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.4.

Facts

  • League table: JYP — No. 4, 35 pts; Karpat — No. 7, 33 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: JYP 3 wins, Karpat 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: JYP — Karpat2.9–2.4
JYP to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
Karpat to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)49%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap JYP
  • JYP goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

JYP

  • 31.10Jokerit5:4 OT
  • 30.10away · SaiPa6:3
  • 28.10Tappara4:6
  • 24.10Assat4:1
  • 22.10Hameenlinna3:2

Karpat

  • 31.10Jukurit1:2
  • 28.10Hameenlinna1:0
  • 24.10KalPa1:5
  • 23.10KalPa5:2
  • 20.10away · SaiPa1:2 SO

Head to head

  • 16.10.2026JYP — Karpat4:5 OT
  • 05.09.2026Karpat — JYP3:4
  • 27.12.2025Karpat — JYP2:4
  • 26.12.2025JYP — Karpat5:3
  • 31.10.2025JYP — Karpat4:5 SO

Full record: 14 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit20941649–40+936
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJYP171021459–48+1135
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa18931552–38+1434
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAssat201012746–48-234
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKarpat20744553–52+133
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo20823761–49+1231

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • IFK HelsinkiJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • IlvesPelicanspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.2
  • JukuritAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.2
  • Kiekko-EspooVaasan Sportpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:15.2
  • LukkoKalPapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →