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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 11 November, (UTC+3)

Jukurit — Assat

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Model prediction for 11 November

Jukurit40%
Draw in regulation24%
Assat37%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Jukurit 51%, Assat 49% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.2 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 29%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.1.

Facts

  • League table: Jukurit — No. 3, 36 pts; Assat — No. 6, 34 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Jukurit 0 wins, Assat 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Jukurit — Assat2.2–2.1
Jukurit to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Assat to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)29%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)71%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Jukurit
  • Jukurit goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Jukurit

  • 31.10away · Karpat2:1
  • 28.10Lukko3:4 SO
  • 24.10away · Ilves2:1 SO
  • 23.10Ilves0:3
  • 20.10away · Vaasan Sport3:0

Assat

  • 31.10away · Vaasan Sport2:1
  • 30.10IFK Helsinki3:2
  • 28.10away · KooKoo3:5
  • 24.10away · JYP1:4
  • 21.10away · Tappara0:3

Head to head

  • 07.10.2026Jukurit — Assat0:1
  • 07.03.2026Jukurit — Assat1:3
  • 18.02.2026Assat — Jukurit5:3
  • 09.12.2025Assat — Jukurit4:0
  • 21.11.2025Jukurit — Assat2:3 OT

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves201031652–39+1337
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit20941649–40+936
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJYP171021459–48+1135
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa18931552–38+1434
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAssat201012746–48-234
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKarpat20744553–52+133

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • IFK HelsinkiJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • IlvesPelicanspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.2
  • JYPKarpatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.3
  • Kiekko-EspooVaasan Sportpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:15.2
  • LukkoKalPapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →