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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 11 November, (UTC+3)

Ilves — Pelicans

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Model prediction for 11 November

Ilves48%
Draw in regulation23%
Pelicans29%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Ilves are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.2 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 29%.

Why

  • Ilves are more dangerous in attack: 2.4 expected goals against 1.9.

Facts

  • League table: Ilves — No. 2, 37 pts; Pelicans — No. 13, 24 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Ilves 4 wins, Pelicans 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ilves — Pelicans2.4–1.9
Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
Pelicans to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)29%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)71%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Ilves
  • Ilves goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Ilves

  • 31.10KalPa1:0
  • 30.10away · Tappara2:1 SO
  • 28.10away · IFK Helsinki1:2
  • 24.10Jukurit1:2 SO
  • 23.10away · Jukurit3:0

Pelicans

  • 31.10Kiekko-Espoo0:3
  • 30.10away · TPS Turku1:2
  • 28.10SaiPa5:0
  • 24.10Tappara5:4 SO
  • 20.10away · Hameenlinna3:1

Head to head

  • 25.02.2026Pelicans — Ilves2:1
  • 03.02.2026Ilves — Pelicans3:0
  • 25.11.2025Ilves — Pelicans3:0
  • 19.09.2025Pelicans — Ilves2:3 OT
  • 11.03.2025Ilves — Pelicans4:2

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsLukko191131453–36+1740
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves201031652–39+1337
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit20941649–40+936
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKalPa18801946–41+525
13, Relegation play-offPelicans17711840–38+224
14, Relegation play-offHameenlinna206301142–55-1324

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • IFK HelsinkiJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • JukuritAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.2
  • JYPKarpatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.3
  • Kiekko-EspooVaasan Sportpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:15.2
  • LukkoKalPapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →