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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Friday, 13 November, (UTC+3)

Karlovy Vary — Sparta Prague

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Model prediction for 13 November

Karlovy Vary39%
Draw in regulation24%
Sparta Prague37%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Karlovy Vary 51%, Sparta Prague 49% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.4 in total, against a competition average of 5.0.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 32%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Karlovy Vary — No. 4, 28 pts; Sparta Prague — No. 6, 25 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Karlovy Vary 3 wins, Sparta Prague 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Karlovy Vary — Sparta Prague2.2–2.2
Karlovy Vary to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Sparta Prague to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)32%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)68%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Karlovy Vary
  • Karlovy Vary goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Karlovy Vary

  • 01.11away · Ceske Budejovice3:2
  • 30.10Pardubice2:4
  • 27.10Mlada Boleslav1:2
  • 25.10away · Trinec1:2
  • 23.10away · Mountfield HK4:3 OT

Sparta Prague

  • 01.11Litvinov3:0
  • 30.10away · Mlada Boleslav4:1
  • 27.10away · Kladno1:5
  • 24.10Olomouc2:1 OT
  • 23.10away · Liberec1:3

Head to head

  • 28.09.2026Sparta Prague — Karlovy Vary0:1
  • 18.01.2026Karlovy Vary — Sparta Prague3:4 SO
  • 07.12.2025Sparta Prague — Karlovy Vary6:1
  • 24.10.2025Karlovy Vary — Sparta Prague4:3 SO
  • 16.09.2025Sparta Prague — Karlovy Vary1:2

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKladno17733453–49+430
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarlovy Vary17820741–33+828
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsCeske Budejovice17802745–47-226
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSparta Prague17712745–40+525
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPlzen17461644–42+225

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • TrinecLiberecpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.1
  • LitvinovCeske Budejovicepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • Mlada BoleslavVitkovicepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:24.9
  • Mountfield HKPlzenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.4
  • OlomoucKladnopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
  • PardubiceKometa Brnopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →