NHL · Wednesday, 18 November, (UTC+3)
Tampa Bay Lightning — Washington Capitals
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 59%.
Why
- Tampa Bay Lightning are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.7.
Facts
- League table: Tampa Bay Lightning — No. 8, 20 pts; Washington Capitals — No. 20, 16 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 wins, Washington Capitals 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tampa Bay Lightning — Washington Capitals | 3.1–2.7 | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 57% | |
| Washington Capitals to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 43% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 59% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 41% |
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Form
- 04.11Detroit Red Wings4:2
- 31.10away · Nashville Predators4:5 SO
- 30.10Winnipeg Jets6:4
- 25.10away · Utah Mammoth4:5 OT
- 24.10away · Colorado Avalanche3:6
- 04.11Dallas Stars5:6
- 01.11Minnesota Wild1:5
- 30.10away · Nashville Predators4:3
- 29.10Philadelphia Flyers5:2
- 25.10Buffalo Sabres4:3 OT
Head to head
- 04.10.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — Washington Capitals3:1
- 23.11.2025Washington Capitals — Tampa Bay Lightning3:5
- 09.11.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — Washington Capitals3:2
- 15.10.2025Washington Capitals — Tampa Bay Lightning3:2 OT
- 01.03.2025Washington Capitals — Tampa Bay Lightning1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | New Jersey Devils | 15 | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 14 | 9 | +7 | 20 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Utah Mammoth | 16 | 10 | +3 | 20 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 14 | 7 | -6 | 17 |
| 20 | Washington Capitals | 14 | 8 | +1 | 16 |
| 21 | New York Islanders | 14 | 7 | +1 | 16 |
NHL on the same day
- Boston BruinsLos Angeles Kingspreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.3
- Florida PanthersEdmonton Oilerspreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.5
- New York IslandersColumbus Blue Jacketspreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.0
- Philadelphia FlyersBuffalo Sabrespreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.2
- Winnipeg JetsOttawa Senatorspreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.4
- Chicago BlackhawksToronto Maple Leafspreliminary41592The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:55.7
- Minnesota WildNashville Predatorspreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:15.5
- St. Louis BluesAnaheim Duckspreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →