Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK

Tappara — Assat

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Model prediction for 21 October

Tappara55%
Draw in regulation20%
Assat25%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Tappara are clear favourites: 67% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

  • Tappara are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Tappara — Assat3.0–2.1
Tappara to win (incl. OT and shootout)67%
Assat to win (incl. OT and shootout)33%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)54%

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Form

Tappara

  • 10.10TPS Turku4:3 SO
  • 09.10away · KalPa3:2
  • 02.10Jokerit3:2 OT
  • 30.09KooKoo3:0
  • 26.09SaiPa2:4

Assat

  • 09.10Hameenlinna2:3 SO
  • 07.10away · Jukurit1:0
  • 03.10away · Lukko5:2
  • 02.10Lukko0:3
  • 26.09away · Hameenlinna4:5 OT

Head to head

  • 10.01.2026Assat — Tappara1:5
  • 09.01.2026Tappara — Assat6:2
  • 11.10.2025Tappara — Assat2:1
  • 10.10.2025Assat — Tappara3:2
  • 22.02.2025Tappara — Assat3:2

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit14630536–29+724
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAssat12612330–27+322
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarpat13523335–34+122
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →