Tennis: WTA, Beijing, hard · Monday, 5 October, MSK

Ostapenko J. — Mertens E.

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Model prediction and result

1:2Came true
Ostapenko J.46%
Mertens E.54%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Mertens E. to win (54%), came true.

Mertens E. are slightly stronger: 54% against 46%.

Over 21.5 games — 53%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Ostapenko J. 1692, Mertens E. 1717.

Probabilities

Games over 21.553%
Games under 21.547%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Ostapenko J. games
  • Mertens E. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Ostapenko J.

  • 03.10Badosa P.2:0
  • 24.09Preston T.0:2
  • 22.09Zakharova A.2:0

Mertens E.

  • 03.10Volynets K.2:1
  • 25.09Chwalinska M.0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Gauff C.Mertens E.7 October · WTA · Beijing
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.19.5
  • Kasatkina D.Ostapenko J.13 October · WTA · Wuhan
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.21.5

WTA on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.17.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.20.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.20.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.17.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →