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UFC (mixed martial arts) · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3)

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Welterweight

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani — Farman Hasanovbeta

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Model prediction and result

1:0 (KO/TKO)Missed
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani48%
Farman Hasanov52%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0 (KO/TKO): the model's most likely outcome, Farman Hasanov to win (52%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 52% fails in about 48 bouts out of 100 on average.

Evenly bouted: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 48%, Farman Hasanov 52%.

Why

  • Elo rating: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 1586, Farman Hasanov 1543.

Probabilities

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The chance of each fighter’s method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), whether the bout goes the distance, the fighters’ ratings, age and reach and how the estimate moved before the bout.

  • Method of victory: KO/TKO, submission, decision
  • KO/TKO by each fighter
  • Goes the distance
  • Fighters’ Elo, age and reach
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Form

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

  • 19.07Seokhyeon Ko1:0
  • 22.02Phil Rowe1:0

Farman Hasanov

  • 28.06Eric Nolan1:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

UFC on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 bouts out of 100. How to read probabilities →