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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Arena Astros

Astros — Gambusinos

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Model prediction and result

86:71Came true
Astros83%
Gambusinos17%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 86:71: the model's most likely outcome, Astros to win (83% incl. overtime), came true.

Astros are clear favourites: 83% against 17% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 87:75 — 163 points in total.

Over 162.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Astros +5.1, Gambusinos −5.1 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Astros — Gambusinos87.4–75.3
Total over 162.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 162.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Astros points
  • Gambusinos points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Astros

  • 07.10Gambusinos96:89
  • 04.10Fuerza Regia101:87
  • 03.10Fuerza Regia74:77
  • 28.09away · Diablos Rojos86:67
  • 27.09away · Diablos Rojos101:77

Gambusinos

  • 07.10away · Astros89:96
  • 03.10away · El Calor de Cancun67:74
  • 02.10away · El Calor de Cancun71:82
  • 27.09Correcaminos102:83
  • 26.09Correcaminos103:90

Head to head

  • 07.10.2026Astros — Gambusinos96:89
  • 26.07.2026Gambusinos — Astros80:88
  • 25.07.2026Gambusinos — Astros86:71
  • 05.09.2025Astros — Gambusinos84:74
  • 04.09.2025Astros — Gambusinos100:76

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSoles28217.750—
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAstros28208.7141
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFuerza Regia28199.6792
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDiablos Rojos281117.39310
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsGambusinos281117.39310
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsFreseros28919.32112

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

  • DoradosGambusinos12 October · LNBP
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 98:83. Model's score: —.166.4

LNBP on the same day

  • CorrecaminosAbejas
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 89:95. Model's score: —.178.6
  • El Calor de CancunLobos Plateados
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 77:90. Model's score: —.163.7
  • FreserosDorados
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 77:105. Model's score: —.174.8
  • MinerosSantos
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 82:93. Model's score: —.174.4
  • PanterasDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 93:92 in overtime. Model's score: —.173.1
  • SolesFuerza Regia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 75:92. Model's score: —.164.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 83% will not happen in roughly 17 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →