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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Gimnasio Manuel Bernardo Aguirre

Dorados — Gambusinos

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Model prediction and result

88:87Came true
Dorados70%
Gambusinos30%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 88:87: the model's most likely outcome, Dorados to win (70% incl. overtime), came true.

Dorados are clear favourites: 70% against 30% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 87:80 — 167 points in total.

Over 166.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Dorados −0.2, Gambusinos −5.4 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Dorados — Gambusinos87.0–80.2
Total over 166.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 166.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Dorados points
  • Gambusinos points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Dorados

  • 12.10Gambusinos98:83
  • 08.10away · Freseros105:77
  • 07.10away · Freseros105:85
  • 03.10away · Panteras85:81
  • 02.10away · Panteras85:91

Gambusinos

  • 12.10away · Dorados83:98
  • 08.10away · Astros71:86
  • 07.10away · Astros89:96
  • 03.10away · El Calor de Cancun67:74
  • 02.10away · El Calor de Cancun71:82

Head to head

  • 12.10.2026Dorados — Gambusinos98:83
  • 12.08.2026Dorados — Gambusinos91:77
  • 11.08.2026Dorados — Gambusinos89:81
  • 04.10.2025Dorados — Gambusinos94:91
  • 03.10.2025Dorados — Gambusinos131:75

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLobos Plateados281810.6433
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDorados281711.6074
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMineros281513.5366
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDiablos Rojos281117.39310
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsGambusinos281117.39310
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsFreseros28919.32112

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

LNBP on the same day

  • AbejasSantos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 84:74. Model's score: —.176.7
  • Lobos PlateadosFreseros
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 75:63. Model's score: —.172.5
  • MinerosDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 97:86. Model's score: —.169.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →