LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Tuesday, 13 October, 05:05 MSK · Gimnasio Marcelino Gonzalez

Mineros — Diablos Rojos

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Model prediction and result

97:86Came true

Mineros57%

Diablos Rojos43%

Model estimate at 04:48 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 97:86: the model's most likely outcome, Mineros to win (57% incl. overtime), came true.

Mineros are slightly stronger: 57% against 43%.

The model expects a score around 86:84 — 169 points in total.

Over 168.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

Team strength against the league average: Mineros −1.4, Diablos Rojos −2.2 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Mineros — Diablos Rojos		86.0–83.5
Total over 168.5 (incl. OT)		51%
Total under 168.5 (incl. OT)		49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All handicaps
All totals
Mineros points
Diablos Rojos points
Regulation 1X2
Offence and defence strength

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Form

Mineros

12.10Diablos Rojos92:98
08.10Santos82:93
07.10Santos96:75
03.10Abejas74:81
02.10Abejas90:78

Diablos Rojos

12.10away · Mineros98:92
08.10away · Panteras92:93
07.10away · Panteras76:77
03.10away · Soles43:86
02.10away · Soles93:84

Head to head

12.10.2026Mineros — Diablos Rojos92:98
11.09.2026Mineros — Diablos Rojos98:85
10.09.2026Mineros — Diablos Rojos75:81
16.08.2025Mineros — Diablos Rojos85:92
15.08.2025Mineros — Diablos Rojos82:64

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	L	PCT	GB
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Dorados	28	17	11	.607	4
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Mineros	28	15	13	.536	6
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Abejas	28	12	16	.429	9
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Santos	28	11	17	.393	10
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Diablos Rojos	28	11	17	.393	10
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Gambusinos	28	11	17	.393	10

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

05:15
Diablos RojosMineros16 October · LNBP
5149
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —170.5

LNBP on the same day

05:00
AbejasSantos
5842
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 84:74. Model's score: —.176.7
05:00
DoradosGambusinos
7030
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 88:87. Model's score: —.167.1
05:00
Lobos PlateadosFreseros
8119
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 75:63. Model's score: —.172.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →