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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Inforum Irapuato

Freseros — Dorados

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Model prediction and result

85:105Came true
Freseros35%
Dorados65%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 85:105: the model's most likely outcome, Dorados to win (65% incl. overtime), came true.

Dorados are clear favourites: 65% against 35% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 84:89 — 174 points in total.

Over 173.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Freseros −8.4, Dorados −1.5 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Freseros — Dorados84.4–89.4
Total over 173.5 (incl. OT)49%
Total under 173.5 (incl. OT)51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Freseros points
  • Dorados points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Freseros

  • 03.10away · Santos87:108
  • 02.10away · Santos81:96
  • 27.09Panteras88:97
  • 26.09Panteras87:94
  • 22.09away · Abejas89:83

Dorados

  • 03.10away · Panteras85:81
  • 02.10away · Panteras85:91
  • 27.09Soles64:97
  • 26.09Soles81:98
  • 21.09away · Astros79:77

Head to head

  • 26.07.2026Dorados — Freseros89:79
  • 25.07.2026Dorados — Freseros84:80
  • 15.09.2025Freseros — Dorados66:92
  • 14.09.2025Freseros — Dorados74:105
  • 23.09.2024Freseros — Dorados68:76

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLobos Plateados281810.6433
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDorados281711.6074
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMineros281513.5366
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsGambusinos281117.39310
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsFreseros28919.32112
13El Calor de Cancun28919.32112

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

  • FreserosDorados8 October · LNBP
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 77:105. Model's score: —.174.8

LNBP on the same day

  • CorrecaminosAbejas
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 76:98. Model's score: —.178.9
  • El Calor de CancunLobos Plateados
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 77:68. Model's score: —.164.9
  • MinerosSantos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:75. Model's score: —.174.6
  • AstrosGambusinos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:89. Model's score: —.161.2
  • PanterasDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 77:76. Model's score: —.174.4
  • SolesFuerza Regia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 88:86. Model's score: —.163.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →