UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Dinamo Zagreb — NEC Nijmegen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Dinamo Zagreb are clear favourites: 48% against 26% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Dinamo Zagreb — No. 17, 1 pt; NEC Nijmegen — No. 36, 0 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- NEC Nijmegen: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb — NEC Nijmegen What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| Dinamo Zagreb not to lose | 74% | |
| NEC Nijmegen not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Dinamo Zagreb
- Dinamo Zagreb goals
- NEC Nijmegen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 16.09away · Hapoel Beer Sheva0:0
- 26.02away · Genk3:3
- 19.02Genk1:3
- 29.01away · FC Midtjylland0:2
- 22.01FCSB4:1
- 10.10away · Ajax1:1
- 20.09Go Ahead Eagles1:1
- 17.09away · Juventus0:5
- 12.09away · Cambuur0:3
- 08.09Excelsior2:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6520141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary7417101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary916752The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.3
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- OlympiacosSparta Praguepreliminary6620141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →