UEFA Nations League, round 3, League C, group 4 · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Laugardalsvöllur
Iceland — Bulgaria
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3:0Came true
In short
Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Iceland to win (62%), came true.
Iceland are clear favourites: 62% against 15% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Iceland 1591, Bulgaria 1423 — Iceland clearly rated higher.
Facts
- Bulgaria: winless in 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Iceland — Bulgaria What is xG? | 2.0–0.9 | |
| Iceland not to lose | 85% | |
| Bulgaria not to lose | 38% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Iceland
- Iceland goals
- Bulgaria goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 29.09away · Luxembourg3:0
- 26.09Estonia1:1
- 10.06away · Argentina0:3
- 31.05away · Japan0:1
- 31.03away · Haiti1:1
- 29.09Estonia0:0
- 26.09Luxembourg1:2
- 05.06away · Moldova2:2
- 01.06Montenegro0:1
- 30.03away · Indonesia1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Iceland | 4 | 2 | +6 | 8 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Estonia | 4 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | -5 | 3 |
Next matches
- EstoniaIceland6 October · UEFA Nations League1423632The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
- LuxembourgBulgaria6 October · UEFA Nations League343136XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 3432341The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 2325522The most likely outcome came true: 20:7Final score 0:7. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- 871121The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 3231372The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 88931The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.6
- 2127522The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
- 6623121The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →