UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Lech Poznań — Sunderland
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Lech Poznań 35%, Sunderland 39%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lech Poznań are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Lech Poznań — No. 35, 0 pts; Sunderland — No. 16, 3 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lech Poznań — Sunderland What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| Lech Poznań not to lose | 61% | |
| Sunderland not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lech Poznań
- Lech Poznań goals
- Sunderland goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Śląsk Wrocław4:1
- 20.09Radomiak Radom5:1
- 17.09away · Crystal Palace0:4
- 12.09away · Górnik Zabrze1:2
- 06.09Raków Częstochowa1:0
- 10.10Brighton & Hove Albion0:2
- 20.09away · Manchester City3:5
- 16.09AZ Alkmaar1:0
- 12.09Arsenal0:2
- 08.09Hull City1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Salzburg | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6520141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary7417101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4825261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary916752The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.3
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- OlympiacosSparta Praguepreliminary6620141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →