UEFA Conference League, round 2 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Monaco — Freiburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Monaco are clear favourites: 53% against 23% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Monaco are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Monaco: unbeaten in 5; Freiburg: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Monaco — Freiburg What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| Monaco not to lose | 77% | |
| Freiburg not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Monaco
- Monaco goals
- Freiburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10Toulouse2:2
- 18.09Lens2:1
- 12.09away · Strasbourg1:1
- 04.09away · Paris Saint-Germain2:1
- 30.08Marseille2:0
- 11.10Schalke 042:1
- 19.09away · Eintracht Frankfurt2:2
- 12.09Borussia Mönchengladbach5:0
- 05.09away · Paderborn1:0
- 30.08Werder Bremen4:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Conference League on the same day
- Kairat AlmatyPanathinaikospreliminary3026442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaFC Københavnpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- Pafos FCRiga FCpreliminary5324221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- GetafeLuganopreliminary4725271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- TrabzonsporHeart of Midlothianpreliminary6819131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- JablonecBrighton & Hove Albionpreliminary917742The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.3
- NordsjællandCSKA Sofiapreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- Inter Club d'EscaldesUniversitatea Craiovapreliminary4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →