Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 31 October, 21:45 MSK

Bern — Zug

Model prediction for 31 October

Bern45%

Draw in regulation23%

Zug32%

Model estimate at 17:13 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Bern are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 37%.

Why

Bern are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bern — Zug		2.5–2.1
Bern to win (incl. OT and shootout)		57%
Zug to win (incl. OT and shootout)		43%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		37%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		63%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Bern
Bern goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Bern

10.10away · Ambri-Piotta2:1 OT
09.10Biel4:2
03.10away · Rapperswil-Jona3:4 OT
02.10Servette2:3 SO
29.09away · Fribourg2:5

Zug

11.10away · EHC Kloten3:1
04.10away · Servette1:2
29.09away · Rapperswil-Jona5:2
25.09away · Langnau Tigers3:5
22.09away · Lugano2:3 OT

Head to head

05.03.2026Bern — Zug2:1 SO
25.11.2025Zug — Bern4:2
11.10.2025Bern — Zug3:0
09.09.2025Zug — Bern3:0
17.01.2025Bern — Zug1:5

Full record: 19 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Ambri-Piotta	10	4	1	1	4	26–32	-6	15
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Bern	9	3	1	3	2	27–26	+1	14
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Zug	7	4	0	1	2	25–15	+10	13
11	Davos	11	4	0	1	6	27–31	-4	13

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

21:45
Ambri-PiottaLuganopreliminary
4753
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
21:45
EHC KlotenZurichpreliminary
3565
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.6
21:45
LausanneDavospreliminary
5446
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1
21:45
Rapperswil-JonaAjoiepreliminary
7030
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.4
21:45
ServetteBielpreliminary
6238
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →