Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Fribourg — Lugano
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Fribourg are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.0 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.
Why
- Fribourg are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fribourg — Lugano | 2.8–2.2 | |
| Fribourg to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 62% | |
| Lugano to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 38% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 43% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Fribourg
- Fribourg goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Zurich4:5 OT
- 08.10Ajoie7:2
- 03.10Ambri-Piotta1:2
- 02.10away · EHC Kloten4:1
- 29.09Bern5:2
- 10.10away · Biel3:2
- 09.10Zurich2:3 OT
- 07.10away · Lausanne5:2
- 04.10away · Ajoie4:5
- 02.10Rapperswil-Jona5:2
Head to head
- 23.01.2026Fribourg — Lugano3:2 SO
- 03.01.2026Lugano — Fribourg3:2
- 20.11.2025Lugano — Fribourg0:4
- 09.09.2025Fribourg — Lugano3:2 OT
- 15.02.2025Fribourg — Lugano2:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Langnau Tigers | 11 | 5 | +7 | 19 |
| 4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Fribourg | 11 | 4 | +9 | 18 |
| 5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Ajoie | 11 | 2 | -3 | 16 |
| 6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Lugano | 10 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lausanne | 11 | 4 | -4 | 15 |
National League on the same day
- 38622The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
- 48522The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
- 52481The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
- 56441The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
- 71291The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.9
- 56441The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →