Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Ilves — KalPa
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ilves are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.
Why
- Ilves are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ilves — KalPa | 2.9–2.2 | |
| Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 63% | |
| KalPa to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 37% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 46% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ilves
- Ilves goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Jokerit3:0
- 09.10Lukko1:5
- 07.10away · Vaasan Sport1:2
- 03.10Kiekko-Espoo6:4
- 29.09Jukurit3:2
Head to head
- 18.09.2026KalPa — Ilves1:2
- 11.04.2026KalPa — Ilves3:4
- 08.04.2026Ilves — KalPa2:1 OT
- 06.04.2026KalPa — Ilves5:3
- 03.04.2026Ilves — KalPa3:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Ilves | 12 | 8 | +12 | 26 |
| 2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Jukurit | 14 | 6 | +7 | 24 |
| 12, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Pelicans | 10 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | KalPa | 11 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | IFK Helsinki | 11 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
Liiga on the same day
- JYPJokeritpreliminary73271The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:15.2
- KarpatJukuritpreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
- KooKooIFK Helsinkipreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
- PelicansKiekko-Espoopreliminary50502The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.5
- Vaasan SportAssatpreliminary42582The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →