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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK

Olympia — Kurgan

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Model prediction for 20 October

Olympia34%
Draw in regulation24%
Kurgan42%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kurgan are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.2 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 29%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.0 and 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Olympia — Kurgan2.0–2.2
Olympia to win (incl. OT and shootout)45%
Kurgan to win (incl. OT and shootout)55%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)29%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)71%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Olympia
  • Olympia goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Olympia

  • 13.10away · Dyn. Altay4:1
  • 11.10away · Metallurg Novokuznetsk0:2
  • 09.10away · Krasnoyarsk4:3
  • 06.10away · HC Norilsk2:3
  • 01.10Kaluga2:3 OT

Kurgan

  • 13.10Dizel4:3
  • 11.10Tambov0:3
  • 09.10Buran Voronezh2:3 SO
  • 01.10Rubin Tyumen2:3 SO
  • 29.09HC Yugra0:3

Head to head

  • 24.12.2025Olympia — Kurgan0:3
  • 17.11.2025Kurgan — Olympia2:3 OT
  • 28.02.2025Olympia — Kurgan2:4
  • 22.09.2024Kurgan — Olympia5:4 SO

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
23Dyn. Altay1252525–30-512
24Olympia1451837–42-511
25Zvezda Moscow1451833–45-1211
26Kurgan1234519–33-1410
27CSK VVS16411131–56-259

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • IzhevskOmskie Kryliapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.7
  • KhimikAKMpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.0
  • Zvezda MoscowRyazanpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →