Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK

Hurkacz H. — Davidovich Fokina A.

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Model prediction and result

1:2Came true
Hurkacz H.50%
Davidovich Fokina A.50%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Davidovich Fokina A. to win (50%), came true.

Evenly matched: Hurkacz H. 50%, Davidovich Fokina A. 50%.

Over 24.5 games — 50%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Hurkacz H. 1751, Davidovich Fokina A. 1719.

Probabilities

Games over 24.550%
Games under 24.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Hurkacz H. games
  • Davidovich Fokina A. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Hurkacz H.

  • 11.10Zhou Y.2:1
  • 09.10Djokovic N.2:0
  • 08.10Duckworth J.2:0
  • 05.10De Minaur A.0:1
  • 04.10Khachanov K.2:0

Davidovich Fokina A.

  • 11.10Tiafoe F.2:1
  • 09.10Brooksby J.2:0
  • 01.10Berrettini M.1:2
  • 29.09Hurkacz H.2:0
  • 28.09Basilashvili N.2:1

Head to head

  • 29.09.2026Hurkacz H. — Davidovich Fokina A.0:2

Next match

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.21.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →