Tennis: ATP, Beijing, hard · Friday, 2 October, MSK

Hurkacz H. — Gea A.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Hurkacz H.61%
Gea A.39%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Hurkacz H. to win (61%), came true.

Hurkacz H. are clear favourites: 61% against 39% for the opponent.

Over 24.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Hurkacz H. 1748, Gea A. 1663.

Probabilities

Games over 24.551%
Games under 24.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Hurkacz H. games
  • Gea A. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Hurkacz H.

  • 01.10Tien L.2:1
  • 29.09Davidovich Fokina A.0:2
  • 28.09Shapovalov D.2:1
  • 27.09Harris L.2:0
  • 26.09Damm M.2:1

Gea A.

  • 30.09Zhang Z.2:0
  • 29.09Machac T.2:0
  • 28.09Te R.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Hurkacz H.Khachanov K.4 October · ATP · Beijing
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.25.5
  • Gea A.Faria J.7 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.25.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.20.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →