Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, qualifying, hard · Monday, 5 October, MSK

Ilagan A. — Basilashvili N.

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Model prediction and result

1:2Came true
Ilagan A.35%
Basilashvili N.65%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Basilashvili N. to win (65%), came true.

Basilashvili N. are clear favourites: 65% against 35% for the opponent.

Over 22.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Ilagan A. 1500, Basilashvili N. 1521.

Probabilities

Games over 22.548%
Games under 22.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Ilagan A. games
  • Basilashvili N. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Ilagan A.

  • 22.09Bar Biryukov P.0:2

Basilashvili N.

  • 28.09Davidovich Fokina A.1:2
  • 27.09Brooksby J.2:0
  • 25.09Van De Zandschulp B.2:0
  • 24.09Kecmanovic M.2:0
  • 23.09Cina F.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Draxl L.Basilashvili N.6 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.23.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →