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Norwegian Eliteserien, round 27 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Aalesund — Rosenborg

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Model prediction for 22 November

Aalesund21%
Draw23%
Rosenborg56%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Rosenborg are clear favourites: 56% against 21% for the opponent, draw 23%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.

Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 69%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Rosenborg are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
  • Rosenborg are 203 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Aalesund — No. 14, 24 pts; Rosenborg — No. 4, 43 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
  • Rosenborg: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Aalesund 2 wins, Rosenborg 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Aalesund — Rosenborg What is xG?1.4–2.3
Aalesund not to lose44%
Rosenborg not to lose79%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes69%
Both teams to score: no31%
Total over 2.569%
Total under 2.531%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Aalesund
  • Aalesund goals
  • Rosenborg goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatAalesundRosenborg
Goals scored per match2.22.8
Goals conceded per match2.21.0
xG per match1.632.20
Opponents’ xG2.261.40
Shots16.217.9
On target5.87.2
Corners6.15.9
Cards2.52.0
Possession, %4154

Averages per match: Aalesund — the last 10, Rosenborg — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Aalesund

  • 31.10Sandefjord3:4
  • 25.10away · Sarpsborg 081:2
  • 17.10away · Kristiansund4:1
  • 11.10Sarpsborg 082:4
  • 19.09away · Molde2:1

Rosenborg

  • 31.10away · Fredrikstad3:0
  • 24.10away · Hamarkameratene3:0
  • 18.10away · Sarpsborg 083:0
  • 10.10Sandefjord1:1
  • 19.09away · Kristiansund3:1

Head to head

  • 16.05.2026Rosenborg — Aalesund2:3
  • 27.08.2023Rosenborg — Aalesund4:0
  • 02.07.2023Aalesund — Rosenborg1:0
  • 21.08.2022Rosenborg — Aalesund2:1
  • 17.07.2022Aalesund — Rosenborg0:0

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3, Europa League or Conference LeagueMolde25134859–39+2043
4, Europa League or Conference LeagueRosenborg25134849–31+1843
5Lillestrøm25133936–33+342
13Hamarkameratene25761235–53-1827
14, Relegation play-offAalesund25591143–57-1424
15, RelegationKristiansund25651429–51-2223

Season 2026

Full table

Eliteserien on the same day

  • KFUMBrannpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
  • KristiansundSandefjordpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
  • Sarpsborg 08Lillestrømpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →