PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

Norwegian Eliteserien, round 27 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Sarpsborg 08 — Lillestrøm

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 22 November

Sarpsborg 0842%
Draw26%
Lillestrøm32%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Sarpsborg 08 are slightly stronger: 42% against 32%, draw 26%.

3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 67%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Sarpsborg 08 are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • League table: Sarpsborg 08 — No. 9, 31 pts; Lillestrøm — No. 5, 42 pts. A gap of 11 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 3 wins, Lillestrøm 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 — Lillestrøm What is xG?1.8–1.5
Sarpsborg 08 not to lose68%
Lillestrøm not to lose58%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes67%
Both teams to score: no33%
Total over 2.563%
Total under 2.537%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Sarpsborg 08
  • Sarpsborg 08 goals
  • Lillestrøm goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatSarpsborg 08Lillestrøm
Goals scored per match1.41.4
Goals conceded per match2.01.7
xG per match2.091.59
Opponents’ xG1.641.82
Shots18.513.7
On target5.54.3
Corners7.84.5
Cards1.51.4
Possession, %5346

Averages per match: Sarpsborg 08 — the last 10, Lillestrøm — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Sarpsborg 08

  • 01.11Kristiansund2:4
  • 25.10Aalesund2:1
  • 18.10Rosenborg0:3
  • 11.10away · Aalesund4:2
  • 18.09KFUM1:3

Lillestrøm

  • 01.11away · Start1:0
  • 25.10Brann3:2
  • 22.10Real Sociedad0:6
  • 18.10away · Sandefjord2:0
  • 15.10away · Sparta Prague1:1

Head to head

  • 03.05.2026Lillestrøm — Sarpsborg 084:0
  • 28.07.2024Lillestrøm — Sarpsborg 082:2
  • 05.05.2024Sarpsborg 08 — Lillestrøm1:0
  • 17.09.2023Sarpsborg 08 — Lillestrøm3:1
  • 16.05.2023Lillestrøm — Sarpsborg 081:2

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Europa League or Conference LeagueRosenborg25134849–31+1843
5Lillestrøm25133936–33+342
6Tromsø25117743–38+540
8Vålerenga25951143–46-332
9Sarpsborg 0825871032–39-731
10KFUM25871032–41-931

Season 2026

Full table

Eliteserien on the same day

  • KFUMBrannpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
  • KristiansundSandefjordpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
  • AalesundRosenborgpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →