Swedish Allsvenskan, round 23 · Saturday, 10 October, 16:00 MSK · Strawberry Arena

AIK — Brommapojkarna

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Model prediction and result

5:6Missed

AIK44%

Draw28%

Brommapojkarna28%

Model estimate at 15:47 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:6: the model's most likely outcome, AIK to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.

AIK are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

By the strength ratings AIK are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: AIK — Brommapojkarna What is xG?		1.5–1.2
AIK not to lose		72%
Brommapojkarna not to lose		56%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		52%
Total under 2.5		48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap AIK
AIK goals
Brommapojkarna goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

AIK

20.09away · Halmstads BK1:2
16.09Mjällby1:1
12.09Västerås SK1:4
07.09away · Malmö FF0:0
30.08Hammarby3:2

Brommapojkarna

19.09IFK Göteborg0:1
13.09away · Hammarby1:3
06.09Elfsborg2:1
31.08away · GAIS0:4
23.08Degerfors2:0

Head to head

13.04.2026Brommapojkarna — AIK2:2
15.09.2025AIK — Brommapojkarna2:1
25.05.2025Brommapojkarna — AIK0:1
25.08.2024AIK — Brommapojkarna2:1
06.04.2024Brommapojkarna — AIK2:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8	IFK Göteborg	23	10	5	8	32–41	-9	35
9	AIK	23	9	6	8	36–40	-4	33
10	GAIS	23	8	6	9	28–21	+7	30
11	Brommapojkarna	23	8	6	9	36–41	-5	30
12	Mjällby	23	5	8	10	28–39	-11	23

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

20:00
BrommapojkarnaDjurgården16 October · Allsvenskan
212553
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
18:30
AIKIFK Göteborg17 October · Allsvenskan
422632
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2

Allsvenskan on the same day

16:00
GAISSirius
402832
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
18:30
MjällbyDegerfors
482824
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →