AFC Champions League Elite, round 5 · Monday, 23 November, (UTC+3)
Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Al-Gharafa
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Al Quwa Al Jawiya are clear favourites: 57% against 20% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Quwa Al Jawiya are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Al Quwa Al Jawiya are 147 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Al-Gharafa: 5 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Al-Gharafa What is xG? | 1.9–1.1 | |
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya not to lose | 80% | |
| Al-Gharafa not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- Al Quwa Al Jawiya goals
- Al-Gharafa goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
Form
- 02.11away · Al-Wasl3:4
- 26.10Pakhtakor Tashkent1:0
- 12.10Al-Ain1:4
- 14.09away · Neftchi Fargona0:1
- 04.12AGMK3:2
- 02.11Al Qadsiah0:5
- 26.10away · Al Ahli1:2
- 12.10Esteghlal1:2
- 15.09away · Al Hilal1:2
- 17.02Tractor0:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
AFC Champions League Elite on the same day
- Neftchi FargonaAl Hilalpreliminary1923582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
- Al-AinEsteghlalpreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Al-ShamalAl Ahlipreliminary2123562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- TractorAl-Waslpreliminary4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
- Al IttihadPakhtakor Tashkentpreliminary5623201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →