AFC Champions League Elite, round 5 · Monday, 23 November, (UTC+3)
Al-Shamal — Al Ahli
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Al Ahli are clear favourites: 56% against 21% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Ahli are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
- Al Ahli are 159 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al-Shamal — Al Ahli What is xG? | 1.1–1.9 | |
| Al-Shamal not to lose | 44% | |
| Al Ahli not to lose | 79% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Al-Shamal
- Al-Shamal goals
- Al Ahli goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
Form
- 02.11away · Al-Sadd0:0
- 30.10away · Al Shabab1:6
- 26.10Al-Gharafa2:1
- 23.10Al Khaleej4:1
- 19.10away · Al-Fayha3:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
AFC Champions League Elite on the same day
- Neftchi FargonaAl Hilalpreliminary1923582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
- Al-AinEsteghlalpreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- TractorAl-Waslpreliminary4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
- Al IttihadPakhtakor Tashkentpreliminary5623201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Al Quwa Al JawiyaAl-Gharafapreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →