AFC Champions League Elite, round 5 · Monday, 23 November, (UTC+3)
Neftchi Fargona — Al Hilal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Al Hilal are clear favourites: 58% against 19% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Hilal are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
- Al Hilal are 150 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Neftchi Fargona — Al Hilal What is xG? | 1.0–1.9 | |
| Neftchi Fargona not to lose | 42% | |
| Al Hilal not to lose | 81% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Neftchi Fargona
- Neftchi Fargona goals
- Al Hilal goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
Form
- 02.11away · Tractor2:2
- 26.10Al Ittihad1:2
- 23.10away · Pakhtakor Tashkent3:1
- 16.10away · Kokand 19124:2
- 12.10away · Al Nassr FC1:3
- 03.11Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC2:0
- 31.10Al Fateh FC2:0
- 27.10away · Al-Shamal1:3
- 23.10away · Al Qadsiah3:2
- 19.10Al Hazem1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
AFC Champions League Elite on the same day
- Al-AinEsteghlalpreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Al-ShamalAl Ahlipreliminary2123562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- TractorAl-Waslpreliminary4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
- Al IttihadPakhtakor Tashkentpreliminary5623201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Al Quwa Al JawiyaAl-Gharafapreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →