UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Anderlecht — Salzburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Anderlecht are slightly stronger: 42% against 31%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Anderlecht — No. 28, 0 pts; Salzburg — No. 21, 3 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Anderlecht — Salzburg What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| Anderlecht not to lose | 69% | |
| Salzburg not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Anderlecht
- Anderlecht goals
- Salzburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 15.10away · Dinamo Zagreb0:1
- 10.10away · Cercle Brugge2:1
- 19.09Zulte Waregem3:0
- 16.09Lyon1:2
- 11.09away · KV Mechelen1:0
- 15.10Milan0:4
- 10.10away · Grazer AK0:0
- 20.09Sturm Graz3:0
- 17.09away · Levski Sofia1:0
- 11.09away · Ried1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Salzburg | 2 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lillestrøm | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 0 | -5 | 1 |
| 28 | Anderlecht | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Celta Vigo | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- Levski SofiaJagiellonia Białystokpreliminary4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →