Serie A, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Atalanta — Inter
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Inter are clear favourites: 58% against 17% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Inter are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Inter are 170 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Atalanta — No. 13, 11 pts; Inter — No. 2, 25 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
- Atalanta: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Atalanta 0 wins, Inter 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atalanta — Inter What is xG? | 1.1–2.0 | |
| Atalanta not to lose | 42% | |
| Inter not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atalanta
- Atalanta goals
- Inter goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Atalanta | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.90 | 2.42 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.71 | 1.17 |
| Shots | 16.1 | 20.1 |
| On target | 5.1 | 7.5 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 5.7 |
| Cards | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 57 |
Form
- 02.11Parma0:3
- 29.10away · Fiorentina2:2
- 25.10Frosinone4:4
- 22.10away · Ajax0:2
- 18.10away · Milan2:3
- 03.11away · Feyenoord3:0
- 31.10away · Milan1:3
- 28.10away · Venezia2:0
- 25.10Fiorentina2:1
- 21.10Shakhtar Donetsk1:0
Head to head
- 14.03.2026Inter — Atalanta1:1
- 28.12.2025Atalanta — Inter0:1
- 16.03.2025Atalanta — Inter0:2
- 30.08.2024Inter — Atalanta4:0
- 28.02.2024Inter — Atalanta4:0
Table
Serie A on the same day
- JuventusVeneziapreliminary7020101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- BolognaUdinesepreliminary5328191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- SassuoloGenoapreliminary343035XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
- MilanFrosinonepreliminary5924171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →