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Serie A, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Milan — Frosinone

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Model prediction for 22 November

Milan59%
Draw24%
Frosinone17%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Milan are clear favourites: 59% against 17% for the opponent, draw 24%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.

Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 63%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Milan are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
  • Milan are 182 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Milan — No. 5, 21 pts; Frosinone — No. 6, 20 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Frosinone: unbeaten in 4.
  • Last 3 meetings: Milan 3 wins, Frosinone 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Milan — Frosinone What is xG?2.2–1.2
Milan not to lose83%
Frosinone not to lose41%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes63%
Both teams to score: no37%
Total over 2.563%
Total under 2.537%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Milan
  • Milan goals
  • Frosinone goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatMilanFrosinone
Goals scored per match2.02.5
Goals conceded per match1.51.4
xG per match1.761.90
Opponents’ xG1.362.02
Shots11.719.6
On target5.17.1
Corners3.96.6
Cards1.91.7
Possession, %5647

Averages per match: Milan — the last 10, Frosinone — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Milan

  • 31.10Inter3:1
  • 28.10Bologna2:4
  • 25.10away · Udinese2:0
  • 22.10away · AFC Bournemouth0:3
  • 18.10Atalanta3:2

Frosinone

  • 01.11Torino2:0
  • 29.10Lecce5:1
  • 25.10away · Atalanta4:4
  • 16.10Sassuolo4:2
  • 10.10away · Napoli0:3

Head to head

  • 03.02.2024Frosinone — Milan2:3
  • 02.12.2023Milan — Frosinone3:1
  • 19.05.2019Milan — Frosinone2:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Champions LeagueComo1072118–8+1023
5, Europa League or Conference LeagueMilan1063121–12+921
6, Europa League or Conference LeagueFrosinone1062224–14+1020
7Juventus1052313–10+317

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie A on the same day

  • JuventusVeneziapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • BolognaUdinesepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
  • SassuoloGenoapreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
  • AtalantaInterpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →