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Serie A, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Sassuolo — Genoa

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Model prediction for 22 November

Sassuolo34%
Draw30%
Genoa35%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Sassuolo 34%, Genoa 35%, draw 30%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • League table: Sassuolo — No. 17, 8 pts; Genoa — No. 11, 13 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Sassuolo: 4 defeats in a row; Genoa: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Sassuolo 0 wins, Genoa 4, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sassuolo — Genoa What is xG?1.3–1.3
Sassuolo not to lose65%
Genoa not to lose66%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.548%
Total under 2.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Sassuolo
  • Sassuolo goals
  • Genoa goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatSassuoloGenoa
Goals scored per match1.61.1
Goals conceded per match2.51.2
xG per match1.221.02
Opponents’ xG1.871.26
Shots11.812.8
On target4.33.3
Corners4.34.7
Cards1.71.9
Possession, %4845

Averages per match: Sassuolo — the last 10, Genoa — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Sassuolo

  • 02.11Fiorentina2:4
  • 27.10Lazio2:6
  • 24.10away · Como0:2
  • 16.10away · Frosinone2:4
  • 11.10Milan1:1

Genoa

  • 01.11away · Lecce2:1
  • 28.10Juventus2:0
  • 25.10Venezia1:0
  • 17.10away · Roma0:2
  • 10.10Fiorentina2:1

Head to head

  • 12.04.2026Genoa — Sassuolo2:1
  • 03.11.2025Sassuolo — Genoa1:2
  • 12.05.2024Genoa — Sassuolo2:1
  • 22.12.2023Sassuolo — Genoa1:2
  • 06.01.2022Sassuolo — Genoa1:1

Full record: 16 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
10Torino1041514–16-213
11Genoa1041510–14-413
12Cagliari104159–15-613
16Fiorentina1022615–23-88
17Sassuolo1022616–26-108
18, RelegationMonza1021717–24-77

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie A on the same day

  • JuventusVeneziapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • BolognaUdinesepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
  • MilanFrosinonepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
  • AtalantaInterpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →