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Serie A, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Bologna — Udinese

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Model prediction for 22 November

Bologna53%
Draw28%
Udinese19%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Bologna are clear favourites: 53% against 19% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Bologna are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Bologna are 221 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Bologna — No. 9, 14 pts; Udinese — No. 19, 5 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
  • Bologna: 3 wins in a row; Udinese: winless in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Bologna 2 wins, Udinese 0, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bologna — Udinese What is xG?1.6–0.9
Bologna not to lose81%
Udinese not to lose47%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.548%
Total under 2.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Bologna
  • Bologna goals
  • Udinese goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatBolognaUdinese
Goals scored per match1.41.2
Goals conceded per match1.32.3
xG per match1.391.10
Opponents’ xG1.322.16
Shots11.714.6
On target4.04.9
Corners4.05.3
Cards2.11.5
Possession, %4850

Averages per match: Bologna — the last 10, Udinese — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Bologna

  • 31.10Monza2:1
  • 28.10away · Milan4:2
  • 24.10away · Cagliari2:0
  • 17.10Inter1:3
  • 11.10away · Lecce2:1

Udinese

  • 31.10Roma2:5
  • 28.10away · Parma0:0
  • 25.10Milan0:2
  • 18.10Lecce0:3
  • 12.10away · Torino1:2

Head to head

  • 23.02.2026Bologna — Udinese1:0
  • 22.11.2025Udinese — Bologna0:3
  • 28.04.2025Udinese — Bologna0:0
  • 18.08.2024Bologna — Udinese1:1
  • 28.04.2024Bologna — Udinese1:1

Full record: 21 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
8Napoli1042417–13+414
9Bologna1042414–13+114
10Torino1041514–16-213
18, RelegationMonza1021717–24-77
19, RelegationUdinese1012711–23-125
20, RelegationVenezia101096–20-143

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie A on the same day

  • JuventusVeneziapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • SassuoloGenoapreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
  • MilanFrosinonepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
  • AtalantaInterpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →