Brazilian Serie B, round 37 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Athletic Club MG — Atlético-GO
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In short
Atlético-GO are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Atlético-GO higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Athletic Club MG — No. 14, 47 pts; Atlético-GO — No. 7, 55 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Atlético-GO: winless in 5.
- Last 3 meetings: Athletic Club MG 0 wins, Atlético-GO 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Athletic Club MG — Atlético-GO What is xG? | 1.2–1.3 | |
| Athletic Club MG not to lose | 59% | |
| Atlético-GO not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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- Handicap Athletic Club MG
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Athletic Club MG | Atlético-GO |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.05 | 1.32 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.38 | 1.33 |
| Shots | 14.0 | 20.1 |
| On target | 3.6 | 4.6 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 8.3 |
| Cards | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 54 |
Form
- 03.11Ceará2:1
- 24.10away · Operário-PR0:1
- 18.10away · Avaí0:0
- 14.10Londrina2:2
- 07.10away · Goiás1:2
- 02.11away · Fortaleza0:0
- 24.10Novorizontino0:1
- 17.10away · Ponte Preta1:1
- 11.10Sport Recife1:1
- 08.10away · CRB1:3
Head to head
- 19.07.2026Atlético-GO — Athletic Club MG0:0
- 05.08.2025Athletic Club MG — Atlético-GO1:1
- 08.04.2025Atlético-GO — Athletic Club MG4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Promotion play-offs | Sport Recife | 36 | 14 | +9 | 55 |
| 7 | Atlético-GO | 36 | 14 | +9 | 55 |
| 8 | CRB | 36 | 16 | +3 | 55 |
| 13 | Cuiabá | 36 | 11 | +3 | 47 |
| 14 | Athletic Club MG | 36 | 11 | +1 | 47 |
| 15 | Náutico | 36 | 12 | -6 | 46 |
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 3929311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- 343134XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.2
- 2726472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →