Brazilian Serie B, round 37 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Vila Nova — Criciúma
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In short
Evenly matched: Vila Nova 34%, Criciúma 34%, draw 31%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Vila Nova are 103 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Vila Nova — No. 3, 63 pts; Criciúma — No. 5, 62 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: Vila Nova 0 wins, Criciúma 3, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vila Nova — Criciúma What is xG? | 1.1–1.1 | |
| Vila Nova not to lose | 66% | |
| Criciúma not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Vila Nova | Criciúma |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 1.15 | 1.12 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.96 | 0.57 |
| Shots | 14.3 | 18.0 |
| On target | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 7.7 |
| Cards | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 59 |
Form
- 31.10Juventude2:2
- 24.10away · São Bernardo2:3
- 19.10Novorizontino2:2
- 11.10away · Náutico2:0
- 08.10Cuiabá0:0
- 31.10Ponte Preta2:0
- 24.10away · Sport Recife1:2
- 18.10away · São Bernardo1:0
- 13.10América-MG1:0
- 09.10away · Ceará0:1
Head to head
- 18.07.2026Criciúma — Vila Nova2:0
- 03.10.2025Vila Nova — Criciúma1:1
- 10.06.2025Criciúma — Vila Nova1:0
- 23.08.2023Criciúma — Vila Nova1:0
- 13.05.2023Vila Nova — Criciúma0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Promotion | Juventude | 36 | 18 | +22 | 65 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Vila Nova | 36 | 18 | +14 | 63 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Fortaleza | 36 | 16 | +12 | 62 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Criciúma | 36 | 18 | +8 | 62 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | Sport Recife | 36 | 14 | +9 | 55 |
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 3929311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- 2726472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- 3029412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 34% will not happen in roughly 66 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →