Liga MX (Mexico), round 16 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Atlas — Pachuca
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Atlas are slightly stronger: 40% against 30%, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Atlas higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Atlas — No. 4, 27 pts; Pachuca — No. 12, 19 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Atlas 1 win, Pachuca 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlas — Pachuca What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| Atlas not to lose | 70% | |
| Pachuca not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Atlas | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 1.58 | 1.35 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.77 | 1.74 |
| Shots | 14.9 | 17.3 |
| On target | 4.0 | 5.5 |
| Corners | 6.9 | 5.3 |
| Cards | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 48 |
Form
- 31.10away · Atlético de San Luis1:0
- 26.10Puebla4:3
- 22.10América2:5
- 17.10away · Necaxa2:0
- 11.10Chivas1:1
Head to head
- 15.02.2026Pachuca — Atlas3:1
- 10.08.2025Atlas — Pachuca0:3
- 02.02.2025Pachuca — Atlas0:0
- 14.09.2024Atlas — Pachuca2:0
- 01.02.2024Pachuca — Atlas4:3
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- 3028432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- 5724191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- 3029412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →