Liga MX (Mexico), round 16 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Tigres — Cruz Azul
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Cruz Azul are slightly stronger: 43% against 30%, draw 28%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cruz Azul are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Cruz Azul are 97 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Tigres — No. 15, 15 pts; Cruz Azul — No. 3, 29 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
- Tigres: winless in 4; Cruz Azul: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Tigres 0 wins, Cruz Azul 2, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tigres — Cruz Azul What is xG? | 1.4–1.6 | |
| Tigres not to lose | 57% | |
| Cruz Azul not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Tigres | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.22 | 1.93 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.77 | 1.26 |
| Shots | 13.9 | 17.8 |
| On target | 5.2 | 6.9 |
| Corners | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 54 |
Form
- 02.11León2:1
- 26.10away · Querétaro3:1
- 22.10away · Pachuca2:1
- 18.10FC Juárez5:0
- 12.10away · Pumas3:3
Head to head
- 16.02.2026Cruz Azul — Tigres2:1
- 07.12.2025Tigres — Cruz Azul1:1
- 04.12.2025Cruz Azul — Tigres1:1
- 05.10.2025Tigres — Cruz Azul1:1
- 02.05.2025Cruz Azul — Tigres1:0
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- 4029301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 5724191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- 3029412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →