Liga MX (Mexico), round 16 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Pumas — América
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
América are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings América are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Pumas — No. 10, 20 pts; América — No. 1, 29 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Pumas 1 win, América 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pumas — América What is xG? | 1.4–1.6 | |
| Pumas not to lose | 59% | |
| América not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Pumas | América |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.24 | 2.05 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.73 | 1.49 |
| Shots | 11.3 | 19.3 |
| On target | 3.9 | 7.5 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 5.4 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 43 | 55 |
Form
- 31.10away · Puebla2:1
- 25.10Tigres1:1
- 22.10away · Santos Laguna0:2
- 17.10away · Atlante2:1
- 12.10Cruz Azul3:3
Head to head
- 11.05.2026Pumas — América3:3
- 04.05.2026América — Pumas3:3
- 22.03.2026Pumas — América1:0
- 28.09.2025América — Pumas4:1
- 23.02.2025Pumas — América0:2
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- 4029301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 3028432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- 5724191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →