Liga MX (Mexico), round 16 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Toluca — Monterrey
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Toluca are clear favourites: 57% against 19% for the opponent, draw 24%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Toluca are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Toluca are 181 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Toluca — No. 5, 24 pts; Monterrey — No. 9, 21 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Toluca: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Toluca 4 wins, Monterrey 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toluca — Monterrey What is xG? | 2.0–1.2 | |
| Toluca not to lose | 81% | |
| Monterrey not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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- Handicap Toluca
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- Monterrey goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Toluca | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xG per match | 2.06 | 1.44 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.35 | 1.22 |
| Shots | 19.1 | 15.9 |
| On target | 6.4 | 5.4 |
| Corners | 6.7 | 7.5 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Possession, % | 58 | 59 |
Form
- 01.11away · América2:2
- 25.10away · León1:1
- 22.10Tijuana2:2
- 18.10Atlético de San Luis1:1
- 10.10away · Tigres2:3
Head to head
- 11.01.2026Monterrey — Toluca0:1
- 07.12.2025Toluca — Monterrey3:2
- 04.12.2025Monterrey — Toluca1:0
- 25.09.2025Toluca — Monterrey6:2
- 11.05.2025Toluca — Monterrey2:1
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- 4029301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 3028432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- 3029412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →