La Liga, round 12 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Atlético Madrid — Barcelona
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Barcelona are clear favourites: 46% against 26% for the opponent, draw 28%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 70%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Barcelona are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Barcelona are 62 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Atlético Madrid — No. 2, 28 pts; Barcelona — No. 1, 30 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Atlético Madrid 2 wins, Barcelona 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Madrid — Barcelona What is xG? | 1.5–1.9 | |
| Atlético Madrid not to lose | 54% | |
| Barcelona not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 30% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 67% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 33% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Atlético Madrid | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 3.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.69 | 2.91 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.01 | 1.33 |
| Shots | 15.9 | 19.4 |
| On target | 5.8 | 7.7 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 6.2 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Possession, % | 57 | 69 |
Form
- 03.11Bayern München0:2
- 31.10away · Levante2:0
- 24.10Deportivo A Coruña1:0
- 20.10away · VfB Stuttgart1:1
- 17.10away · Espanyol1:0
- 03.11Aston Villa3:0
- 31.10Deportivo Alavés6:1
- 25.10Real Madrid1:2
- 20.10away · Paris Saint-Germain2:4
- 17.10away · Real Betis5:2
Head to head
- 14.04.2026Atlético Madrid — Barcelona1:2
- 08.04.2026Barcelona — Atlético Madrid0:2
- 04.04.2026Atlético Madrid — Barcelona1:2
- 03.03.2026Barcelona — Atlético Madrid3:0
- 12.02.2026Atlético Madrid — Barcelona4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Barcelona | 11 | 10 | +34 | 30 |
| 2, Champions League | Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9 | +14 | 28 |
| 3, Champions League | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | +18 | 27 |
La Liga on the same day
- 3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- 5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 7020101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →