La Liga, round 12 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Real Sociedad — Rayo Vallecano
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In short
Real Sociedad are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Sociedad are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Real Sociedad are 87 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Real Sociedad — No. 5, 19 pts; Rayo Vallecano — No. 12, 12 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Real Sociedad 1 win, Rayo Vallecano 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Real Sociedad — Rayo Vallecano What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Real Sociedad not to lose | 79% | |
| Rayo Vallecano not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- All totals
- Handicap Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad goals
- Rayo Vallecano goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Real Sociedad | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| xG per match | 1.55 | 1.61 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.72 | 1.60 |
| Shots | 14.3 | 17.6 |
| On target | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| Corners | 5.8 | 6.5 |
| Cards | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 54 |
Form
- 01.11away · Athletic Club1:2
- 25.10Levante2:1
- 22.10away · Lillestrøm6:0
- 18.10away · Málaga5:2
- 15.10away · Union St.Gilloise1:1
- 31.10Celta Vigo3:0
- 27.10away · Recreativo Huelva3:2
- 24.10Elche0:3
- 19.10away · Getafe1:1
- 19.09away · Osasuna1:1
Head to head
- 26.04.2026Rayo Vallecano — Real Sociedad3:3
- 05.10.2025Real Sociedad — Rayo Vallecano0:1
- 16.03.2025Rayo Vallecano — Real Sociedad2:2
- 16.01.2025Real Sociedad — Rayo Vallecano3:1
- 18.08.2024Real Sociedad — Rayo Vallecano1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Champions League | Real Betis | 11 | 7 | +3 | 23 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 0 | 19 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Sevilla | 11 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 11 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | -8 | 12 |
La Liga on the same day
- 3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- 6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 7020101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- 2628462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →