Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 12 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
AZ Alkmaar — FC Groningen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites: 61% against 17% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AZ Alkmaar are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- AZ Alkmaar are 140 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: AZ Alkmaar — No. 5, 20 pts; FC Groningen — No. 8, 15 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Last 4 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 2 wins, FC Groningen 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar — FC Groningen What is xG? | 2.3–1.2 | |
| AZ Alkmaar not to lose | 83% | |
| FC Groningen not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
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- FC Groningen goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | AZ Alkmaar | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| xG per match | 1.73 | 1.81 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.35 | 2.16 |
| Shots | 14.8 | 14.8 |
| On target | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Corners | 5.8 | 4.3 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Possession, % | 58 | 49 |
Form
- 31.10away · Ajax0:1
- 25.10FC Twente0:2
- 22.10away · Ararat Armenia4:0
- 18.10away · Cambuur2:2
- 15.10Hapoel Beer Sheva2:1
- 01.11Sparta Rotterdam2:3
- 25.10away · NEC Nijmegen2:2
- 18.10Ajax2:5
- 11.10away · Excelsior5:1
- 18.09PEC Zwolle3:0
Head to head
- 22.03.2026FC Groningen — AZ Alkmaar3:0
- 10.08.2025AZ Alkmaar — FC Groningen4:1
- 11.05.2025AZ Alkmaar — FC Groningen3:0
- 25.08.2024FC Groningen — AZ Alkmaar0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Twente | 11 | 7 | +18 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6 | +7 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen | 11 | 5 | +6 | 18 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 11 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | Cambuur | 11 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- 2026542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
- 5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 1220692The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.7
- 4328301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →