Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 12 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
FC Utrecht — NEC Nijmegen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
FC Utrecht are slightly stronger: 43% against 30%, draw 28%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- FC Utrecht are 81 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: FC Utrecht — No. 12, 12 pts; NEC Nijmegen — No. 13, 11 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Utrecht 4 wins, NEC Nijmegen 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Utrecht — NEC Nijmegen What is xG? | 1.8–1.5 | |
| FC Utrecht not to lose | 70% | |
| NEC Nijmegen not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Utrecht
- FC Utrecht goals
- NEC Nijmegen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | FC Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| xG per match | 1.33 | 1.48 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.88 | 2.11 |
| Shots | 13.9 | 15.7 |
| On target | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 5.6 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Possession, % | 48 | 56 |
Form
- 01.11away · Telstar2:4
- 24.10PEC Zwolle1:1
- 18.10away · FC Twente2:1
- 11.10Willem II3:1
- 20.09away · Feyenoord0:5
- 31.10away · SC Heerenveen0:1
- 25.10FC Groningen2:2
- 22.10away · Dinamo Zagreb4:2
- 18.10Fortuna Sittard2:2
- 15.10Levski Sofia1:1
Head to head
- 11.02.2026NEC Nijmegen — FC Utrecht1:3
- 02.11.2025FC Utrecht — NEC Nijmegen1:0
- 15.03.2025FC Utrecht — NEC Nijmegen0:1
- 24.11.2024NEC Nijmegen — FC Utrecht1:2
- 17.03.2024FC Utrecht — NEC Nijmegen1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Utrecht | 11 | 3 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3 | -11 | 11 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- 2026542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
- 5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 1220692The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.7
- 6123171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →