Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 12 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
FC Twente — Ajax
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
FC Twente are clear favourites: 50% against 24% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Twente are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- FC Twente are 79 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: FC Twente — No. 4, 23 pts; Ajax — No. 2, 24 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- FC Twente: 3 wins in a row; Ajax: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Twente 1 win, Ajax 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Twente — Ajax What is xG? | 1.9–1.3 | |
| FC Twente not to lose | 76% | |
| Ajax not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | FC Twente | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 2.80 | 2.19 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.74 | 1.41 |
| Shots | 21.3 | 20.3 |
| On target | 7.4 | 6.9 |
| Corners | 6.7 | 6.0 |
| Cards | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 61 | 61 |
Form
- 01.11away · Excelsior9:0
- 25.10away · AZ Alkmaar2:0
- 22.10away · Lincoln Red Imps FC4:1
- 18.10FC Utrecht1:2
- 15.10Thun1:0
- 31.10AZ Alkmaar1:0
- 25.10away · Sparta Rotterdam2:1
- 22.10Atalanta2:0
- 18.10away · FC Groningen5:2
- 15.10away · Hajduk Split1:2
Head to head
- 04.04.2026Ajax — FC Twente1:2
- 26.10.2025FC Twente — Ajax2:3
- 18.05.2025Ajax — FC Twente2:0
- 10.11.2024FC Twente — Ajax2:2
- 14.04.2024Ajax — FC Twente2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Feyenoord | 11 | 7 | +21 | 25 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Ajax | 11 | 7 | +17 | 24 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7 | +22 | 23 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 11 | 7 | +18 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6 | +7 | 20 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- 2026542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
- 1220692The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.7
- 6123171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- 4328301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →