UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
AZ Alkmaar — Juventus
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Juventus are clear favourites: 49% against 26% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- Juventus's starting XI is worth €244m, AZ Alkmaar's €54m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings Juventus are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: AZ Alkmaar — No. 20, 3 pts; Juventus — No. 1, 6 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Juventus: unbeaten in 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar — Juventus What is xG? | 1.2–1.7 | |
| AZ Alkmaar not to lose | 51% | |
| Juventus not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AZ Alkmaar
- AZ Alkmaar goals
- Juventus goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10Hapoel Beer Sheva2:1
- 10.10away · Feyenoord0:2
- 20.09Telstar1:0
- 16.09away · Sunderland0:1
- 11.09Willem II1:1
- 15.10away · Celta Vigo2:1
- 11.10away · Cagliari1:1
- 20.09Atalanta2:0
- 17.09NEC Nijmegen5:0
- 13.09away · Sassuolo2:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Straight to the round of 16 | Juventus | 2 | 2 | +6 | 6 |
| 2, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | +6 | 6 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Salzburg | 2 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →