UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Benfica — Lech Poznań
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Benfica are clear favourites: 76% against 9% for the opponent, draw 16%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- Benfica's starting XI is worth €162m, Lech Poznań's €19m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings Benfica are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Benfica — No. 3, 6 pts; Lech Poznań — No. 36, 0 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Benfica — Lech Poznań What is xG? | 2.6–0.8 | |
| Benfica not to lose | 91% | |
| Lech Poznań not to lose | 24% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Benfica
- Benfica goals
- Lech Poznań goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10Celtic4:1
- 11.10Vitória de Guimarães2:0
- 20.09away · FC Porto1:3
- 16.09away · Milan2:0
- 13.09Gil Vicente3:1
- 15.10Bayer Leverkusen0:4
- 10.10away · Śląsk Wrocław4:1
- 20.09Radomiak Radom5:1
- 17.09away · Crystal Palace0:4
- 12.09away · Górnik Zabrze1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | +6 | 6 |
| 3, Straight to the round of 16 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Beşiktaş | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 35 | NK Celje | 2 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Lech Poznań | 2 | 0 | -8 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →