UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Beşiktaş — Crystal Palace
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Beşiktaş 39%, Crystal Palace 35%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Beşiktaş are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Beşiktaş — No. 3, 3 pts; Crystal Palace — No. 2, 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Beşiktaş — Crystal Palace What is xG? | 1.5–1.4 | |
| Beşiktaş not to lose | 65% | |
| Crystal Palace not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Beşiktaş
- Beşiktaş goals
- Crystal Palace goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 11.10Kocaelispor2:1
- 20.09away · Amed Sportif2:3
- 17.09Marseille4:1
- 11.09Erzurumspor FK3:0
- 05.09away · Fenerbahçe2:1
- 11.10Nottingham Forest3:1
- 20.09away · Leeds United0:0
- 17.09Lech Poznań4:0
- 12.09Ipswich Town2:3
- 08.09Middlesbrough3:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Straight to the round of 16 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 2, Straight to the round of 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 3, Straight to the round of 16 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Sparta Prague | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6520141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary7417101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4825261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary916752The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.3
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →